Comprehensive analysis of a no-death 5/15 Hardcore Kai run
Jan 21, 2014 21:27:54 GMT
John Bryntze likes this
Post by UrQuan on Jan 21, 2014 21:27:54 GMT
General observations:
Combined chance of dying to unavoidable instadeaths: 59%
Chance of completing the run: 5%
This was already a pain in the ass to calculate, having to take into account the chance of getting the Silver Helmet/Jewelled Mace etc.
It's still not that simple however, as the runs/time factor is most important. For example, I would argue that previously Camouflage was the better fifth skill, as without the "restart from section 1" option rerolling was a surprisingly arduous and time-consuming process, so you wanted to just go with whatever Weaponskill was usable. The main problem here is that you need to pick and manually change your stats before you pick Weaponskill, which requires several more clicks on different parts of the screen. You also saved time by using the quicker route straight to the Giak. Now I would say Healing is a very irritating skill to have to take, but strictly better.
Even then its very hard to calculate exactly how much lack of Healing in book 5 hurts you in terms of overall win rate. This win rate is of course with 21 EP in the final fight which you will rarely achieve without Healing if you get the Jewelled Mace.
The combat statistics are acquired by exhaustive simulation. They are based on true odds, not the actual book-specific RNT's used in Seventh Sense, which of course leaves some room for error. Also, first round-invulnerability coupled with the loss off 2 CS the next round is hard to calculate exactly. In most battles the difference of first round-invulnerability is very small in general so the margin of error here is even smaller. First round invulnerability is really not great in actual combats, mostly a difference of a few percent in win rates. It's really good in most of the short combats though. The biggest difference is by far in the Giak fight in book 1, where the free attack nearly doubles your win rate.
The instadeaths statistics are based on the book-specific RNT's. The falling mast and sniper instadeaths happen to be the same as the true odds (10%). The skyship one is only 6% though.
The changeable options (Intelligent Damage/Healing etc.) don't really matter for this run.
Other than book 5, the walkthroughs mention no specific paths or sections. Only certain sections and some non-intuitive choices are referenced. The actual route should be relatively obvious and in books 1-4 it's hard to [fudge] up. The minimum combat route is used in all books.
Kai Disciplines:
This is surprisingly straightforward. Only for the fifth skill do you have some options.
Weaponskill: You need CS badly.
Mindblast: You need CS really badly.
Animal Kinship: Really really necessary, and used in lots of sections.
Mind over Matter: Used in really a lot of sections.
Healing: Might seem like an obvious choice but its really sort of a red herring. Under almost no circumstances will you need any healing in books 1-4, and even then you have a huge surplus of healing items. The problem is book 5, where you can lose really a ridiculous amount of EP from non-combat sections, and the Elix fight will leave you especially maimed. Very irritating skill.
Optional Disciplines:
Camouflage: Only used in one section, at the beginning of book 1. It is a pretty important section though, and gives you more attempts per reroll when you can avoid this fight.
Sixth Sense: Interesting. The 20% increased chance of getting the Silver Helmet is not that great. The overall chance of completing the run is around 7% with Sixth Sense (not taking into account low EP in book 5)
Everything else: Completely useless.
Fun facts:
The chance of killing the Helghast with -11 CR or worse with 15 EP is around 0.1% (with Mindshield) or 0.001% (without Mindshield)
You don't have to eat ever in the whole run.
Book 1:
Startscum until you get Sword/Short Sword/Broadsword/Dagger Weaponskill (50% chance) if going with Camouflage. You need Sword Weaponskill for Healing (20%). Doesn't matter what item you get.
Grab the Spear/3 Gold Crowns.
Grab the Sword from section 15 if you have Sword Weaponskill and you want to fight the Giak. With Camouflage just go straight to the Giak and bash your head against it if you don't pass the roll.
Combat win rates:
Giak + Doomwolf: 14% Incorrect weapon 38% Correct weapon
Skills used:
Camouflage: 50% chance for combatless route.
Book 2:
Grab the Shield and appropriate weapon if you don't have one yet. Otherwise, the Chainmail Waistcoat (yes, even though you lose it)
Note that if you hit the combats on the Green Sceptre you should just restart immediately. You can fight the lone Drakkar.
Buy a weapon on Sage Street in Ragadorn to save yourself from potential embarrassment in the bar.
Combined chance of instadeaths: 37% (the Green Sceptre combats counted as instadeaths)
Combat win rates:
Harbour Thugs: 100%
If you have Broadsword Weaponskill there is a very slight chance of losing.
Halvorc: 100%
It is theoretically possible to lose if you tank too much starvation damage. In fact if you take a lot of damage in the Harbour Thugs fight you can even outright die from starvation (of course you can just eat instead)
Zombie Captain: 94%
Skills used:
Animal Kinship: Not having to fight the Helghast at -11 CR.
Book 3:
Grab the Padded Leather Waistcoat.
Grab the Alether and hope you get the Silver Helmet.
Skills used:
Animal Kinship: Avoiding the Baknar fight.
Mind over Matter: 50% chance to get the Silver Helmet.
Mind over Matter/Camouflage: Avoiding the Ice Barbarians fight
Book 4:
Grab the Chainmail Waistcoat and Laumspur.
Just go straight to the mine.
Grab the Laumspur, Alether and Holy Water.
Tank the Daemonak damage in the crypt.
Combined chance of instadeaths 28% (the Vassagonian Warrior fight is counted as an instadeath)
Skills used:
Weaponskill: Better chance to avoid the Vassagonian Warrior fight.
Book 5:
This is where the first real problems for a low-stat run start. It's the first book where you really have unavoidable combats (except for Halvorc and the Zombie Captain), and not one but two. And one of them you fight with one hand and no shield! (With an interesting 2 base CS)
This is also the first book where healing might be an issue (with Camouflage). In fact it's the only book where you need to heal at all. You do have a ridiculous surplus of healing items at this point. The problem is of course that you can only carry eight with you, and two slots are taken up by the Alether. You can buy potions at the herb mistresses shop of course, and buy the Kourshah later. With the optimal route you will lose between a net amount of 12 and 27 EP from non-combat sections. If you take a ton of damage from the Elix and the Drakkar fight you will definitely be short at the end.
Of course if you have Healing none of this will be an issue. Just take the shortest route and tank all damage.
Starting inventory: +4 Alether, +2 Alether, +5 Laumspur, 5x +4 Laumspur
Don't get captured.
Make sure to take an EP-lossless route in the sewers. (right, north is good)
Get infected.
Crawl past the Steamspiders.
Use the larnuma oil.
Heal and buy stuff at the herb mistresses shop.
Go to the west arch and sneak past the guards.
Grab the Copper Key.
Heal before the Elix fight and use +4 Alether.
Don't eat the Oede.
Evade the Drakkar.
Escape by the stairs and take the EP-lossless route to the Itikar.
Joust the Drakkarim Kraan-Rider on the Itikar.
Don't help the dwarf.
Heal before the Drakkar fight. Note that it's impossible to die in three rounds here at full EP.
Don't die to the final (7%) instadeath.
For more prestige points drink the Bor Brew. (the other prestige point was not eating, ever)
But really, don't drink it.
Give the Oede to the vaxeler.
Drink the Kourshah and buy the bottle.
Drink the jala.
Go to section 373.
Throw away the Sommerswerd.
Tank the damage from Haakon's laugh.
Heal and use Alether.
Combined chance of instadeaths: 13%
Combat win rates: (all potential combinations)
Elix (+2 Alether without Silver Helmet): 12%
Elix (+2 Alether with silver helmet): 43%
Elix (+4 Alether without Silver Helmet): 43%
Elix (+4 Alether with Silver Helmet): 69%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether without Silver Helmet): 3%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether with Silver Helmet): 22%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether without Silver Helmet): 22%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether with Silver Helmet): 47%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether without Silver Helmet and with Dagger Weaponmastery): 22%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether with Silver Helmet and with Dagger Weaponmastery): 47%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether without Silver Helmet and with Dagger Weaponmastery): 47%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether with Silver Helmet and with Dagger Weaponmastery): 72%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether without Silver Helmet and with Jewelled Mace): 47%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether with Silver Helmet and with Jewelled Mace): 72%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether without Silver Helmet and with Jewelled Mace): 72%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether with Silver Helmet and with Jewelled Mace): 92%
Note that in all cases without the Jewelled Mace or Dagger Weaponmastery (and Dagger of Vashna) it's better to use +2 Alether for the Elix fight.
In all cases with the Jewelled Mace or Dagger Weaponmastery it's the other way around:
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 no SH: 2.6%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 SH: 20%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 no SH: 1.2%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 SH: 15%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 no SH Dagger WS: 5.6%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 SH Dagger WS: 30%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 no SH Dagger WS: 9.5%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 SH Dagger WS: 32%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 no SH JM: 8.6%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 SH JM: 40%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 no SH JM: 20%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 SH JM: 50%
Of course you don't know if you will get the Jewelled Mace or not. Overall its better to use +4 Alether for the Elix though.
Palace Gaoler with Sword Weaponmastery: 17%
Note that the Palace Gaoler is a slightly better fight than the Elix with +2 Alether if you have Sword Weaponmastery, and you dont have the Silver Helmet.
You will also lose slightly less EP from non-combat sections with this route, and you will have +4 Alether for the Dhorgaan fight.
But, you lose out on the chance of getting the Jewelled Mace from the vaxeler, so this route is still not better in any case.
Skills used:
Mind over Matter: Avoiding chance to get imprisoned (worse route)
Mind over Matter: Avoiding the Platform Sentry fight.
Animal Kinship: Avoiding the Itikar fight.
Mind over Matter: Avoiding the Drakkarim Sentry fight
Other runs:
Magnakai: Impossible. Even with deaths it's impossible. Even 10/20 is impossible!
Grandmaster (not low-stat): I'm interested in a 1-20 run and have already done some analysis for when the books are released in Seventh Sense. From what I can say so far though is even with perfect stats it's ridiculously hard.
A By-the-book/Hardcore max stats no-death run of 1-20 is orders of magnitude more impressive than this run.
Conclusion:
After painstakingly exhausting every imaginable possibility, I am very convinced that there are no improvements to the route/strategies described here. I urge you to prove me wrong!
Hopefully this analysis takes away some of the mystique of this run and truly proves that:
"A wise choice of Kai Disciplines and a great deal of courage, will enable any player to complete the mission, no matter how weak their initial COMBAT SKILL or ENDURANCE points score." !!!
Combined chance of dying to unavoidable instadeaths: 59%
Chance of completing the run: 5%
This was already a pain in the ass to calculate, having to take into account the chance of getting the Silver Helmet/Jewelled Mace etc.
It's still not that simple however, as the runs/time factor is most important. For example, I would argue that previously Camouflage was the better fifth skill, as without the "restart from section 1" option rerolling was a surprisingly arduous and time-consuming process, so you wanted to just go with whatever Weaponskill was usable. The main problem here is that you need to pick and manually change your stats before you pick Weaponskill, which requires several more clicks on different parts of the screen. You also saved time by using the quicker route straight to the Giak. Now I would say Healing is a very irritating skill to have to take, but strictly better.
Even then its very hard to calculate exactly how much lack of Healing in book 5 hurts you in terms of overall win rate. This win rate is of course with 21 EP in the final fight which you will rarely achieve without Healing if you get the Jewelled Mace.
The combat statistics are acquired by exhaustive simulation. They are based on true odds, not the actual book-specific RNT's used in Seventh Sense, which of course leaves some room for error. Also, first round-invulnerability coupled with the loss off 2 CS the next round is hard to calculate exactly. In most battles the difference of first round-invulnerability is very small in general so the margin of error here is even smaller. First round invulnerability is really not great in actual combats, mostly a difference of a few percent in win rates. It's really good in most of the short combats though. The biggest difference is by far in the Giak fight in book 1, where the free attack nearly doubles your win rate.
The instadeaths statistics are based on the book-specific RNT's. The falling mast and sniper instadeaths happen to be the same as the true odds (10%). The skyship one is only 6% though.
The changeable options (Intelligent Damage/Healing etc.) don't really matter for this run.
Other than book 5, the walkthroughs mention no specific paths or sections. Only certain sections and some non-intuitive choices are referenced. The actual route should be relatively obvious and in books 1-4 it's hard to [fudge] up. The minimum combat route is used in all books.
Kai Disciplines:
This is surprisingly straightforward. Only for the fifth skill do you have some options.
Weaponskill: You need CS badly.
Mindblast: You need CS really badly.
Animal Kinship: Really really necessary, and used in lots of sections.
Mind over Matter: Used in really a lot of sections.
Healing: Might seem like an obvious choice but its really sort of a red herring. Under almost no circumstances will you need any healing in books 1-4, and even then you have a huge surplus of healing items. The problem is book 5, where you can lose really a ridiculous amount of EP from non-combat sections, and the Elix fight will leave you especially maimed. Very irritating skill.
Optional Disciplines:
Camouflage: Only used in one section, at the beginning of book 1. It is a pretty important section though, and gives you more attempts per reroll when you can avoid this fight.
Sixth Sense: Interesting. The 20% increased chance of getting the Silver Helmet is not that great. The overall chance of completing the run is around 7% with Sixth Sense (not taking into account low EP in book 5)
Everything else: Completely useless.
Fun facts:
The chance of killing the Helghast with -11 CR or worse with 15 EP is around 0.1% (with Mindshield) or 0.001% (without Mindshield)
You don't have to eat ever in the whole run.
Book 1:
Startscum until you get Sword/Short Sword/Broadsword/Dagger Weaponskill (50% chance) if going with Camouflage. You need Sword Weaponskill for Healing (20%). Doesn't matter what item you get.
Grab the Spear/3 Gold Crowns.
Grab the Sword from section 15 if you have Sword Weaponskill and you want to fight the Giak. With Camouflage just go straight to the Giak and bash your head against it if you don't pass the roll.
Combat win rates:
Giak + Doomwolf: 14% Incorrect weapon 38% Correct weapon
Skills used:
Camouflage: 50% chance for combatless route.
Book 2:
Grab the Shield and appropriate weapon if you don't have one yet. Otherwise, the Chainmail Waistcoat (yes, even though you lose it)
Note that if you hit the combats on the Green Sceptre you should just restart immediately. You can fight the lone Drakkar.
Buy a weapon on Sage Street in Ragadorn to save yourself from potential embarrassment in the bar.
Combined chance of instadeaths: 37% (the Green Sceptre combats counted as instadeaths)
Combat win rates:
Harbour Thugs: 100%
If you have Broadsword Weaponskill there is a very slight chance of losing.
Halvorc: 100%
It is theoretically possible to lose if you tank too much starvation damage. In fact if you take a lot of damage in the Harbour Thugs fight you can even outright die from starvation (of course you can just eat instead)
Zombie Captain: 94%
Skills used:
Animal Kinship: Not having to fight the Helghast at -11 CR.
Book 3:
Grab the Padded Leather Waistcoat.
Grab the Alether and hope you get the Silver Helmet.
Skills used:
Animal Kinship: Avoiding the Baknar fight.
Mind over Matter: 50% chance to get the Silver Helmet.
Mind over Matter/Camouflage: Avoiding the Ice Barbarians fight
Book 4:
Grab the Chainmail Waistcoat and Laumspur.
Just go straight to the mine.
Grab the Laumspur, Alether and Holy Water.
Tank the Daemonak damage in the crypt.
Combined chance of instadeaths 28% (the Vassagonian Warrior fight is counted as an instadeath)
Skills used:
Weaponskill: Better chance to avoid the Vassagonian Warrior fight.
Book 5:
This is where the first real problems for a low-stat run start. It's the first book where you really have unavoidable combats (except for Halvorc and the Zombie Captain), and not one but two. And one of them you fight with one hand and no shield! (With an interesting 2 base CS)
This is also the first book where healing might be an issue (with Camouflage). In fact it's the only book where you need to heal at all. You do have a ridiculous surplus of healing items at this point. The problem is of course that you can only carry eight with you, and two slots are taken up by the Alether. You can buy potions at the herb mistresses shop of course, and buy the Kourshah later. With the optimal route you will lose between a net amount of 12 and 27 EP from non-combat sections. If you take a ton of damage from the Elix and the Drakkar fight you will definitely be short at the end.
Of course if you have Healing none of this will be an issue. Just take the shortest route and tank all damage.
Starting inventory: +4 Alether, +2 Alether, +5 Laumspur, 5x +4 Laumspur
Don't get captured.
Make sure to take an EP-lossless route in the sewers. (right, north is good)
Get infected.
Crawl past the Steamspiders.
Use the larnuma oil.
Heal and buy stuff at the herb mistresses shop.
Go to the west arch and sneak past the guards.
Grab the Copper Key.
Heal before the Elix fight and use +4 Alether.
Don't eat the Oede.
Evade the Drakkar.
Escape by the stairs and take the EP-lossless route to the Itikar.
Joust the Drakkarim Kraan-Rider on the Itikar.
Don't help the dwarf.
Heal before the Drakkar fight. Note that it's impossible to die in three rounds here at full EP.
Don't die to the final (7%) instadeath.
For more prestige points drink the Bor Brew. (the other prestige point was not eating, ever)
But really, don't drink it.
Give the Oede to the vaxeler.
Drink the Kourshah and buy the bottle.
Drink the jala.
Go to section 373.
Throw away the Sommerswerd.
Tank the damage from Haakon's laugh.
Heal and use Alether.
Combined chance of instadeaths: 13%
Combat win rates: (all potential combinations)
Elix (+2 Alether without Silver Helmet): 12%
Elix (+2 Alether with silver helmet): 43%
Elix (+4 Alether without Silver Helmet): 43%
Elix (+4 Alether with Silver Helmet): 69%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether without Silver Helmet): 3%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether with Silver Helmet): 22%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether without Silver Helmet): 22%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether with Silver Helmet): 47%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether without Silver Helmet and with Dagger Weaponmastery): 22%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether with Silver Helmet and with Dagger Weaponmastery): 47%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether without Silver Helmet and with Dagger Weaponmastery): 47%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether with Silver Helmet and with Dagger Weaponmastery): 72%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether without Silver Helmet and with Jewelled Mace): 47%
Dhorgaan (+2 Alether with Silver Helmet and with Jewelled Mace): 72%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether without Silver Helmet and with Jewelled Mace): 72%
Dhorgaan (+4 Alether with Silver Helmet and with Jewelled Mace): 92%
Note that in all cases without the Jewelled Mace or Dagger Weaponmastery (and Dagger of Vashna) it's better to use +2 Alether for the Elix fight.
In all cases with the Jewelled Mace or Dagger Weaponmastery it's the other way around:
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 no SH: 2.6%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 SH: 20%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 no SH: 1.2%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 SH: 15%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 no SH Dagger WS: 5.6%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 SH Dagger WS: 30%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 no SH Dagger WS: 9.5%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 SH Dagger WS: 32%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 no SH JM: 8.6%
Elix 2 + Dhorgaan 4 SH JM: 40%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 no SH JM: 20%
Elix 4 + Dhorgaan 2 SH JM: 50%
Of course you don't know if you will get the Jewelled Mace or not. Overall its better to use +4 Alether for the Elix though.
Palace Gaoler with Sword Weaponmastery: 17%
Note that the Palace Gaoler is a slightly better fight than the Elix with +2 Alether if you have Sword Weaponmastery, and you dont have the Silver Helmet.
You will also lose slightly less EP from non-combat sections with this route, and you will have +4 Alether for the Dhorgaan fight.
But, you lose out on the chance of getting the Jewelled Mace from the vaxeler, so this route is still not better in any case.
Skills used:
Mind over Matter: Avoiding chance to get imprisoned (worse route)
Mind over Matter: Avoiding the Platform Sentry fight.
Animal Kinship: Avoiding the Itikar fight.
Mind over Matter: Avoiding the Drakkarim Sentry fight
Other runs:
Magnakai: Impossible. Even with deaths it's impossible. Even 10/20 is impossible!
Grandmaster (not low-stat): I'm interested in a 1-20 run and have already done some analysis for when the books are released in Seventh Sense. From what I can say so far though is even with perfect stats it's ridiculously hard.
A By-the-book/Hardcore max stats no-death run of 1-20 is orders of magnitude more impressive than this run.
Conclusion:
After painstakingly exhausting every imaginable possibility, I am very convinced that there are no improvements to the route/strategies described here. I urge you to prove me wrong!
Hopefully this analysis takes away some of the mystique of this run and truly proves that:
"A wise choice of Kai Disciplines and a great deal of courage, will enable any player to complete the mission, no matter how weak their initial COMBAT SKILL or ENDURANCE points score." !!!