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Post by John Bryntze on Jan 26, 2014 21:03:31 GMT
Thanks a lot Dave, this was really cool reading. I think it seems smart to not take any CS boosting skill.. because -30 or -12 still uses the same table LOL  |
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Post by John Bryntze on Jan 27, 2014 12:15:39 GMT
ignore this post solved it |
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Post by UrQuan on Jan 27, 2014 23:43:29 GMT
Yes, very impressive run! Just to make it clear I really don't know anything about these books. I haven't even completed book 1! And last time, my dog ate a few pages, just as I made it to the bridge for the first time. (I think I dropped some mustard on the pages)
But my wife, you know... She is very good at these things. Always seems to know the right path and get the rolls. No idea how she does it! Oh, she did mention something about being slightly confused by the "strategy" of fighting 5 extra completely avoidable combats, while also taking some unnecessary EP losses from some sections here and there (well, he would have been short on EP either way). But then I realized, of course this was only done to handicap himself further!
Ah yes, very good strategy not to take CS boosting skills. I feel like it's also a good strategy (don't quote me on this!) not to take Healing when you can just roll 0s in the combats instead. I will utilize these strategies in my own games.
Again, my knowledge of the books truly pales in comparison with Kami (his friends call him Kami), so I'm sorry if I confused or offended someone. Oh, I did heard something about this software called Seventh Sense. Maybe now I can finish the first book finally (that damn dog!) Hopefully this software has some cheating aids though because again, I'm really bad at these books.
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Post by Dave on Jan 28, 2014 0:32:14 GMT
UrQuan,
I don't think you've offended anyone (though it sounds like you might be trying to), but the sarcastic tone of your comments seems to indicate that we have offended you... If so, and especially if it was me - I'm sorry! Internet forums are definitely not the best medium of communication, and the written word omits all kinds of non-verbal cues that make spoken communication more effective.... anyway, I think/hope we can all agree that we are not attacking each other, and we are not saying that you don't know what you're talking about.
Clearly, the odds are against anyone finishing such a crazy attempt, but odds are odds - and they must allow for even the very unlikely to happen. There are a number of people who have attempted and succeeded at the Kai run with 5/15 (of which kamikaze was the first to succeed there, as well). I can't help but notice that his run of the Kai series (from 2010) also omitted Mindblast, which is on your list of "must-have" disciplines. That's one of things that makes his runs unique - he likes to experiment!
And, in case anyone was wondering - for random numbers, my program doesn't just pick a "0-9" number... it actually picks a random column, and a random row, and uses whatever number is there on the action chart. So, it's not like kamikaze rolled the "same" zero time and again - it just happened that he hit lots of the different zeroes distributed around the table. Same overall effect, I guess, but gets there differently than simply rolling a 1d10.
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Post by John Bryntze on Jan 28, 2014 0:35:23 GMT
I'm trying to to do the same steps as Kamikaze to just finish book 1-5 in Hardcore CS5/EP15, I made it to the last battle in book 5 but dies all the time. The only difference from Kamikaze is that I skipped Mind-Screen/Pathfinding in favor or Mindblast and Healing Now since I cannot beat the last monster in book 5 I will trade away Healing against Weaponmastery in Dagger... then in book 3 I can find vial to give CS4 to use in this battle (book 5) I will use the dagger of Vashna that will give +2 itself.. and +2 from Weaponmastery. instead of -7 in that battle I should be only -1 and then I should be able to make it. |
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Post by Dave on Jan 28, 2014 2:33:33 GMT
Best of luck to you!
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Post by Thomas Wolmer on Jan 28, 2014 11:59:20 GMT
Yes, very impressive run! Just to make it clear I really don't know anything about these books. I haven't even completed book 1! And last time, my dog ate a few pages, just as I made it to the bridge for the first time. (I think I dropped some mustard on the pages) But my wife, you know... She is very good at these things. Always seems to know the right path and get the rolls. No idea how she does it! Oh, she did mention something about being slightly confused by the "strategy" of fighting 5 extra completely avoidable combats, while also taking some unnecessary EP losses from some sections here and there (well, he would have been short on EP either way). But then I realized, of course this was only done to handicap himself further! Ah yes, very good strategy not to take CS boosting skills. I feel like it's also a good strategy (don't quote me on this!) not to take Healing when you can just roll 0s in the combats instead. I will utilize these strategies in my own games. Again, my knowledge of the books truly pales in comparison with Kami (his friends call him Kami), so I'm sorry if I confused or offended someone. Oh, I did heard something about this software called Seventh Sense. Maybe now I can finish the first book finally (that damn dog!) Hopefully this software has some cheating aids though because again, I'm really bad at these books. Urquan, please be constructive. It is obvious that you don't think that Kamikazes's run is valid. Now you have the full paths through the books, so you can 1) Compute the actual probability of succeeding using Kamikazes's choices. 2) Point out what choices that would have improved the probability. 3) Point out what cheats (or bugs?) in Seventh Sense that change the game. |
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Post by Thomas Wolmer on Jan 28, 2014 12:27:46 GMT
I tried to understand Kamikazes's run myself, but I am not sure I follow...
OK, the weird hardcore weapons rule that saves you from first round combat damage when wielding a two-handed weapon does turn things around. But what are those CS changes during combats that shouldn't have any?
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Post by John Bryntze on Jan 28, 2014 12:57:10 GMT
I tried to understand Kamikazes's run myself, but I am not sure I follow... OK, the weird hardcore weapons rule that saves you from first round combat damage when wielding a two-handed weapon does turn things around. But what are those CS changes during combats that shouldn't have any? Hehehe surprised myself at first too, but it is because he switch to one hand weapon he get maybe +2Cs for Sommersvärdet and in the next battle sequence he can get back the shield so +2CS again... Actually in book 5.. I got the limb-death but still allowed to use Broadsword which is a two hand weapon.. but not wearing shield. |
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Post by saladdays on Jan 28, 2014 17:36:57 GMT
Yes, very impressive run! Just to make it clear I really don't know anything about these books. I haven't even completed book 1! And last time, my dog ate a few pages, just as I made it to the bridge for the first time. (I think I dropped some mustard on the pages) But my wife, you know... She is very good at these things. Always seems to know the right path and get the rolls. No idea how she does it! Oh, she did mention something about being slightly confused by the "strategy" of fighting 5 extra completely avoidable combats, while also taking some unnecessary EP losses from some sections here and there (well, he would have been short on EP either way). But then I realized, of course this was only done to handicap himself further! Ah yes, very good strategy not to take CS boosting skills. I feel like it's also a good strategy (don't quote me on this!) not to take Healing when you can just roll 0s in the combats instead. I will utilize these strategies in my own games. Again, my knowledge of the books truly pales in comparison with Kami (his friends call him Kami), so I'm sorry if I confused or offended someone. Oh, I did heard something about this software called Seventh Sense. Maybe now I can finish the first book finally (that damn dog!) Hopefully this software has some cheating aids though because again, I'm really bad at these books. Urquan, please be constructive. It is obvious that you don't think that Kamikazes's run is valid. Now you have the full paths through the books, so you can 1) Compute the actual probability of succeeding using Kamikazes's choices. 2) Point out what choices that would have improved the probability. 3) Point out what cheats (or bugs?) in Seventh Sense that change the game. I'm really not sure why he hasn't already done something like that already instead of result in pure sarcasm. Even if he did that, though, it is still possible for Kamikaze to do his run the way he did. Do we even know if Kamikaze thought his choices were the "best," or was he simply trying something new as Dave suggests? |
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Post by UrQuan on Jan 28, 2014 18:16:07 GMT
UrQuan, I don't think you've offended anyone (though it sounds like you might be trying to), but the sarcastic tone of your comments seems to indicate that we have offended you... If so, and especially if it was me - I'm sorry! Internet forums are definitely not the best medium of communication, and the written word omits all kinds of non-verbal cues that make spoken communication more effective.... anyway, I think/hope we can all agree that we are not attacking each other, and we are not saying that you don't know what you're talking about. Clearly, the odds are against anyone finishing such a crazy attempt, but odds are odds - and they must allow for even the very unlikely to happen. There are a number of people who have attempted and succeeded at the Kai run with 5/15 (of which kamikaze was the first to succeed there, as well). I can't help but notice that his run of the Kai series (from 2010) also omitted Mindblast, which is on your list of "must-have" disciplines. That's one of things that makes his runs unique - he likes to experiment! And, in case anyone was wondering - for random numbers, my program doesn't just pick a "0-9" number... it actually picks a random column, and a random row, and uses whatever number is there on the action chart. So, it's not like kamikaze rolled the "same" zero time and again - it just happened that he hit lots of the different zeroes distributed around the table. Same overall effect, I guess, but gets there differently than simply rolling a 1d10. I'm not offended (maybe by Kamikaze's run), but I'm definitely getting frustrated. At this point I'm begging you guys to reconsider. I can honestly say that I was not planning to throw more wood into the fire here. But after reading the post about his run, I was just disgusted. I mean, was he even trying? He's basically just walking around in random sections, getting into unnecessary fights and taking unnecessary EP damage. And then, not only does he get credit for the run, but people outright refuse to believe he could be wrong about anything he does or says. Even after me pointing out the very obvious flaws in his comments about the run (in the other thread). Look, I understand probabilities might be hard to comprehend, but maybe if you try just book 5 yourself without combat skills? You don't even have to go through books 1-4 more than once, just restart at the beginning of book 5. How many times will you bash your head against the Elix before you give up; 10, 20, 100 times? Just the Elix fight at -11 CR (he didn't use Alether here) will take an average of 500 tries. And of course this is absolutely nothing compared to the whole book, or the whole run. Maybe then you will at least get a feel for what type of insurmountable odds we are talking about here. Of course, in the post describing his run he fails to even mention this book (neither does he mention book 6 which is just as ridiculous). I general though, let's be very careful about comparing (any) 5/15 Kai run to longer runs. And if experimenting means deliberately handicapping yourself, then sure. Hopefully no one would argue that skipping Weaponskill and Animal Kinship in favor of 2 useless skills in a Kai run is a good choice though (his original Kai run). |
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Post by UrQuan on Jan 28, 2014 18:51:10 GMT
Yes, very impressive run! Just to make it clear I really don't know anything about these books. I haven't even completed book 1! And last time, my dog ate a few pages, just as I made it to the bridge for the first time. (I think I dropped some mustard on the pages) But my wife, you know... She is very good at these things. Always seems to know the right path and get the rolls. No idea how she does it! Oh, she did mention something about being slightly confused by the "strategy" of fighting 5 extra completely avoidable combats, while also taking some unnecessary EP losses from some sections here and there (well, he would have been short on EP either way). But then I realized, of course this was only done to handicap himself further! Ah yes, very good strategy not to take CS boosting skills. I feel like it's also a good strategy (don't quote me on this!) not to take Healing when you can just roll 0s in the combats instead. I will utilize these strategies in my own games. Again, my knowledge of the books truly pales in comparison with Kami (his friends call him Kami), so I'm sorry if I confused or offended someone. Oh, I did heard something about this software called Seventh Sense. Maybe now I can finish the first book finally (that damn dog!) Hopefully this software has some cheating aids though because again, I'm really bad at these books. Urquan, please be constructive. It is obvious that you don't think that Kamikazes's run is valid. Now you have the full paths through the books, so you can 1) Compute the actual probability of succeeding using Kamikazes's choices. 2) Point out what choices that would have improved the probability. 3) Point out what cheats (or bugs?) in Seventh Sense that change the game. 1) I already have. Those calculations did not take into account any lack of EP or unnecessary combats so even those absolutely astronomical odds are severely underestimated. But statistics didn't convince anyone before, why would it now? Here is the thread in case you didn't read it (my posts further down): projectaon.proboards.com/thread/2426/comprehensive-analysis-death-kai-run2) All book 3 combats unnecessary, Firesphere useless. Two combats in book 11 unnecessary (repair bridge, use Nexus, use Animal Kinship and take 10% instadeath roll, don't run across the bridge directly). At least book 5 has unnecessary EP losses (took damage in the sewers, fought the Vordak on the Itikar). 3) The source code is available on Dave's website. I would be surprised if there is any way to tell from the resume.dat file if the client itself has been tampered with. There is even a disclaimer on the site. "A note to all source code users : Please respect the efforts of those who have honestly made their way onto the Hall of Fame. Using the source to create falsified save files just to get on the Hall of Fame would be unethical and very much against the spirit of Lone Wolf. So, let's keep things on the up and up - For Sommerlund and the Kai!" I'm not a programmer but I would guess it would not be hard to change the RNG to roll what numbers you want instead of random ones if you know what you're doing. |
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Post by UrQuan on Jan 29, 2014 1:11:12 GMT
Yes, very impressive run! Just to make it clear I really don't know anything about these books. I haven't even completed book 1! And last time, my dog ate a few pages, just as I made it to the bridge for the first time. (I think I dropped some mustard on the pages) But my wife, you know... She is very good at these things. Always seems to know the right path and get the rolls. No idea how she does it! Oh, she did mention something about being slightly confused by the "strategy" of fighting 5 extra completely avoidable combats, while also taking some unnecessary EP losses from some sections here and there (well, he would have been short on EP either way). But then I realized, of course this was only done to handicap himself further! Ah yes, very good strategy not to take CS boosting skills. I feel like it's also a good strategy (don't quote me on this!) not to take Healing when you can just roll 0s in the combats instead. I will utilize these strategies in my own games. Again, my knowledge of the books truly pales in comparison with Kami (his friends call him Kami), so I'm sorry if I confused or offended someone. Oh, I did heard something about this software called Seventh Sense. Maybe now I can finish the first book finally (that damn dog!) Hopefully this software has some cheating aids though because again, I'm really bad at these books. Urquan, please be constructive. It is obvious that you don't think that Kamikazes's run is valid. Now you have the full paths through the books, so you can 1) Compute the actual probability of succeeding using Kamikazes's choices. I really feel like I'm beating a dead horse but here we go. I gave him full 2-handed rule benefits in all battles for good measure, and didn't bother taking into account any temporary CS losses. Combats are in order of appearance. I'm sorry for the weird rounding. Book 3:1% 30% Book 5:0.16% 1% (+4 Alether) Book 6: (Note that he even beat Altan here at -11 CR. Laughable.)37% 7% (+2 Alether) 1% Book 7:71% Book 8:70% Book 9: 70% 47% 82% Book 10:0.0005% Book 11:21% 86% 0.35% 20% 4% 0.003% 7% 0.14% 0.05% 0.23% Make it stop...Probability of beating books 1-11: 1.1921781e-37 Odds: 1/10000000000000000000000000000000000000 I'm not sure what examples or references you want here. This is a smaller chance than winning the lottery 5 times in a row. Nobody, in the history of humanity, ever won a national lottery even twice in a row. To my knowledge, there was only one case in a smaller lottery in the UK. There have been some cases of duplicate tickets, and some scams and shenanigans in the 19th century. Overall, there are few recorded cases of anyone winning even twice in their lifetime. The national Bulgarian lottery once drew the same numbers twice in a row. Just for this, a special commission was instated by the Bulgarian government to investigate fraud: news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8259801.stmBook 12:82% 100% 95% 78% 27% 0.004% 0.67% Probability of beating book 12: 4.19586422e-8 Odds: 1/24000000 This alone is beyond lottery odds. Very conveniently he had to restart only "several times" to finish the run. As people are very keen to point out, there is a "chance" that it was a legit run. But what about the absolutely overwhelming chance that it wasn't? What about the chance that he cheated? Mainstream games with sophisticated anti-cheating methods are hacked all the time. I also know it seems very obscure why he would do this. But please, just look at the odds and tell me which scenario is more likely? |
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Post by Dave on Jan 29, 2014 7:23:10 GMT
UrQuan, I appreciate your skepticism. Another forum member wrote to me via private message, concerned about a potential method of cheating that kamikaze (or any other "enterprising" player) might have employed to accomplish the run. The method would consist of quitting the game, which saves the resumeX file, then backing up that file, retrying a round of combat until you get a good roll (copying the old resumeX file back over if you didn't), and then saving *that* resumeX, and on until you win the battle, and eventually, the book.
I explained in response to the member's concerns that I had foreseen that as a potential way to cheat, perhaps the easiest and most obvious to someone who has their heart set on victory at all costs, and that I had designed the program with a counter to that cheat. The method is this: the program tracks the timestamps of the resumeX file each time the game is quit/saved. Upon loading up the game, the resumeX file's timestamps are checked against the records of the last timestamp, and if they don't match (which would be the case if a "backup" copy of the resumeX file were to have been copied over the original), that entire campaign becomes marked as "invalid" for Hall-of-fame purposes. That invalid marking does not go away until the player does a fresh start of a book (not using saved data.) This method has resulted in my turning down several people's submissions for the Hall-of-Fame - and it only *may* have been an attempt at cheating. It's certainly possible that the person was simply copying the file from their desktop to their laptop to play on a trip, or backed up the entire Seventh Sense folder to do a fresh install of Windows, or some other innocent copy procedure. Perhaps needless to say, then, I don't accuse anyone whose file shows "invalid timestamp" of cheating, I simply explain the reason why I can't accept it, and ask them to try again and to avoid copying the files. Kamikaze's submitted file did not have an "invalid" timestamp issue.
Now, is it possible to defeat that anti-cheating measure? Of course. Is it possible to use the source code to modify your game in a way that any cheating would be undetectable? Definitely. Does kamikaze possess the necessary knowledge/skills to make such modifications? I don't think so. And even if he did, I don't believe that he would have employed them to that end. I have come to know kamikaze perhaps a little better than your average Project Aon forum-goer, as a result of extensive communications off of the forum, regarding the award system and other aspects of Seventh Sense. From all my communications with him, I get the sense that he is a trustworthy individual, and one who, if he says he did it in a legitimate manner, then I will believe him. The only way I would believe otherwise, is if he flat out said he cheated.
Further evidence of his truth: The program also tracks deaths and/or whether a player restarts a book, for special accolades on the Hall of Fame. If he were going for maximum glory, he'd have kept his "winning streak" all the way through book 12, but that's not what we see. Quite the contrary, the first time he died in this run, he sent me the resumeX file, not as a Hall of Fame submission, but just to show me the incredible streak of luck he'd had - he was astonished to have made it that far without dying, and wanted to share it with someone. That file was also legit, showing neither an invalid timestamp nor a death counter. And the file he submitted later (the one with a finished book 12, as posted in this thread) was also valid, but now had a death/restart marker (unfortunately, it's doesn't track the actual number of restarts, just whether one happened.)
So, you can disbelieve, if you like - that's your prerogative. But my knowledge of kamikaze's history, interests, and character makes me believe him.
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Post by John Bryntze on Jan 29, 2014 13:21:50 GMT
I'm trying to to do the same steps as Kamikaze to just finish book 1-5 in Hardcore CS5/EP15, I made it to the last battle in book 5 but dies all the time. The only difference from Kamikaze is that I skipped Mind-Screen/Pathfinding in favor or Mindblast and Healing Now since I cannot beat the last monster in book 5 I will trade away Healing against Weaponmastery in Dagger... then in book 3 I can find vial to give CS4 to use in this battle (book 5) I will use the dagger of Vashna that will give +2 itself.. and +2 from Weaponmastery. instead of -7 in that battle I should be only -1 and then I should be able to make it. I did finish Book 1-5 with CS5 and EP15. like others said book 1-4 is a walk in the park, it is book 5 that is the tricky one. I used CS4 (from book 5) on Elix (already for the -3CS) and then a CS2 (from book 4) on Dhoorgan. Key to finish with not too much of luck Re-roll book 1 until get Weaponskill with dagger, dagger since I know in the last fight with Dhoorgan I will lose Sommerswerd but still keep Dagger of Vashna that gives +2CS Mindblast for the extra +2CS (very rare monsters are immune against this) Replay from book 1 each time I failed to get SilverHelm in book 3, for some reasons I twice rolled bad numbers. Take +CS4 vial in book 3 (easy) Take Alether in book 4. (easy) I followed Kamikaze's route pretty much, took another route in book 3 to not do a single battle. In book 5 to get Oede I pass by drunk soldiers... lose one EP but escape a possible battle with port guards and I didn't want to bribe since I had backpack full with Laumspure and stuff I needed so I couldn't give 2 items there. |
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